Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.356646 41.175358 46.874015 54.251292 63.773501 75.998815 93.529559
2025-05-04 30.033478 35.971571 43.741144 55.147602 72.492293 100.111619 154.053873
2025-05-11 25.882625 32.189707 41.046672 55.351953 80.335232 129.491506 271.117944
2025-05-18 22.778287 29.068273 38.351607 54.454316 85.941614 161.552276 520.682735
2025-05-25 20.745106 27.053328 36.769983 54.744749 93.986754 211.981517 1623.403915
2025-06-01 19.042177 25.237749 35.096173 54.287931 100.305208 273.335697 68182.061623
2025-06-08 17.631411 23.667679 33.525204 53.540873 105.648881 352.181301 NaN
2025-06-15 16.473408 22.351354 32.164578 52.838118 110.908920 464.099096 NaN
2025-06-22 15.548329 21.305980 31.118517 52.533089 117.483934 655.440013 NaN
2025-06-29 14.625506 20.174409 29.763469 51.204945 119.936352 868.399989 NaN
2025-07-06 14.347069 20.083589 30.311521 54.504126 143.425043 2946.695897 NaN
2025-07-13 13.671392 19.254246 29.338815 53.774946 149.429520 8485.339051 NaN
2025-07-20 13.161789 18.683668 28.830247 54.224083 162.871479 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.724421 18.205734 28.452607 54.964671 180.037091 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.275603 17.673480 27.903866 55.100435 194.767642 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.783733 17.030684 27.060025 54.181046 201.507362 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.425289 16.606219 26.634703 54.456604 219.601515 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.043101 16.114259 26.017433 53.998420 231.573299 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.671083 15.619970 25.352231 53.255660 240.521952 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.329670 15.164378 24.734822 52.558111 249.884163 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.038098 14.786630 24.259255 52.255338 264.853437 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.702159 14.309772 23.527578 50.938543 264.660722 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.663103 14.389463 24.054203 54.208651 348.729796 NaN NaN